Thai protests could become a military coup if violence continues between student protesters and counter-protesters, an analyst says.
“I think that there’s going to be growing tensions which could actually develop into some conflict, perhaps some violent conflict and that’s very dangerous,” Paul Chambers, lecturer and advisor at Naresuan University’s Center of ASEAN Community Studies, said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
The pro-democracy protests have been deemed peaceful so far as they demand the resignation of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and reforms to the monarchy. Prayuth ignored the deadline set by protesters for his resignation.
Meanwhile, royalists or the “yellow shirts” also began to hold counter protests. A small counter-protest in Bangkok led to violence when some of them attacked student demonstrators on the anti-government camp, according to the Associated Press.
“These peaceful protests are going to continue, try to continue on. However, there’s going to be some right-wing counter-protesters who I expect are going to try to create some violence, which could lead to some injuries and deaths and eventually, even potentially a military coup,” Chambers said.
Moreover, he noted that if conflicts between pro-democracy protesters and royalists escalate, the military would develop the “perfect rationale” for intervention. He warned that this could eradicate the current “facade democracy” and spark a new junta. This will not give the country peace, he added.
Impact of Thai protests on the economy
The impact of protests on Thailand’s economy, which suffered from the pandemic, will be a “double whammy” according to analysts.
The protesters will not leave until they have a “new” Thailand, according to Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University.
Young Thais are holding anti-monarchy protests in Thailand after King Maha Vajiralongkorn returned from overseas for several royal duties.
Prior to their scuffle with police, the demonstrators partially blocked the road near the monument and set up a barricade. The police then tried to remove this barricade.
When the king’s convoy drove past the protesters for the first time, demonstrators chanted “release our friends” and held up the three-finger salute from the Hunger Games movies — a popular symbol of the protests.
According to the deputy police spokesman, Police Colonel Kissana Phathanacharoen, the protesters were arrested for conducting a protest without permission and detained for violating the “Public Assembly Act.”
“The rise in Thailand’s political temperature following the announcement of a state of emergency in Bangkok will deal a big blow to an economy already reeling under the impact of the pandemic,” Lavanya Venkateswaran, market economist at Mizuho Bank, wrote in a note.
Mizuho Bank reduced its 2020 GDP growth prediction for the Southeast Asian country from -6.3% to -7.5%.
“This time the social unrest brought on by decades of deep political division has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic,” Venkateswaran said. He explained that the areas affected by the political chaos are also the same ones damaged by the pandemic. This involves weaker private spending on investment and consumption and lower tourist arrivals.
