A coronavirus vaccine that is safe and at least 50% effective would be a “game changer” in fighting the pandemic, according to Dr. Carlos del Rio of Emory University.
“Developing vaccines against respiratory virus is incredibly difficult. If you think about the flu vaccine that we use every year, it’s only about 40% to 60% effective,” Dr. Carlos del Rio of Emory University said during an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
The US Food and Drug Administration announced last month it would grant authorization for a coronavirus vaccine as long as it is safe and at least 50% effective. According to Dr. Stephen Hahn, the agency’s commissioner, it would be “unrealistic” to come up with a vaccine that is 100% effective.
Meanwhile, a vaccine that is 50% effective means it would minimize the average person’s risk of coronavirus infection by 50%.
“A 50% efficacy would be transformative. It’s much better than zero, which is what we have right now,” del Rio told CNBC. “So I think it’d really be a game changer if we get a vaccine with 50% or greater efficacy.”
50%-60% efficacy
White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci explained earlier this month that scientists anticipate a vaccine that can prevent the coronavirus would be at least 75% effective. However, he said 50% to 60% efficacy also would be admissible.
“You’ve got to think of the vaccine as a tool to be able to get the pandemic to no longer be a pandemic, but to be something that’s well controlled,” the nation’s leading infectious disease expert said on Aug. 7 during a question-and-answer session with Brown University’s School of Public Health.
In addition, Del Rio stressed that widespread inoculation of a vaccine, even one with 50% efficacy, would allow the US to reach herd immunity, the situation where enough people possess antibodies and therefore contain its spread in a population.
“Between the people that have been infected plus the people that you’ve vaccinated, at 50% you would get there,” said del Rio, a professor in the infectious disease division of Atlanta-based Emory’s medical school. He serves as a co-director of the Emory Center for AIDS Research.
“One of the theories is that you may still get infected but you will not develop complications. You will not end up in the hospital. You will not end up in the ICU,” said del Rio. “And that I think also would be quite transformative because you will definitely decrease the morbidity and mortality of the disease.”
Moderna
Del Rio works as an investigator for Moderna’s potential coronavirus vaccine. The Massachusetts-based biotech firm started its late-stage human trials last month. The National Institutes of Health is working with Moderna, which was the first company to start human trials in the US in March.
Moderna has received commitments worth up to nearly $2.5 billion from the U.S. government to aid its vaccine development. Through Operation Warp Speed, the government is providing billions of dollars to various companies that are working on a vaccine.
As part of those deals, companies are ramping up manufacturing capacity to expedite the deployment of a vaccine, should it prove safe and effective. Del Rio said that is the right strategy.
“So if everything goes well, you may be talking about March or April of next year where you can say, ‘OK, we’ve got a vaccine and we’ve got plenty of doses to start giving out to people,’” said del Rio.
