Covid cases in America could be zero in six months, according to the forecast of economists at UBS as vaccine development progresses.
UBS previously predicted that the number of Covid cases in America would become zero by the end of 2021, but the vaccine developments compelled the bank to change the schedule to six months.
“We might get a situation where reported cases of Covid in the United States fall very close to zero in Q2 (second quarter) of next year. That six-month difference, that two-quarter difference matters a lot, it means an extra 1 to 1.25 percentage point gain in GDP next year,” Seth Carpenter, chief U.S. economist at UBS, told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche.
He explained that the announcement form Pfizer “was very encouraging” as the efficacy rate turned out to be much higher than analysts were expecting.
The U.S. has recorded more than 10 million Covid-19 cases since the coronavirus pandemic started. The country posted record highs this week in terms of Covid-19 hospitalizations and cases, with 153,496 infections on Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Covid peak
While UBS' forecast is rosy, Dr. Gottlieb Gottlieb, former commissioner at the Food and Drug Administration, said that the U.S. may experience Covid peak in January as the country experiences outbreaks.
He said that scientists and public health officials still warn that the U.S. could experience Covid peak even if there is reported progress in vaccine development.
According to Pfizer and BioNTech’s statement, their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in responding to Covid-19 among those without proof of prior infection. They consider the development as “a great day for science and humanity.”
“I think we can see light at the end of the tunnel,” Pfizer Chairman and CEO Dr. Albert Bourla said during an interview on CNBC’s Meg Tirrell on “Squawk Box.” “I believe this is likely the most significant medical advance in the last 100 years, if you count the impact this will have in public health, global economy.”
The statement comes as drugmakers and research centers race to produce a safe and effective vaccine to control the coronavirus pandemic that has killed over 1.2 million lives across the world.
Scientists look forward to a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, while White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said one that is 50% or 60% effective is already acceptable.
“We are three to four weeks behind Europe now and we are headed in the same direction in terms of the progression of the disease,” Dr. Scottlieb said. “We are not moving fast enough to change our behaviors, reduce mobility, and take policy actions to stop the trend.”
“Looking at the epidemic curve, Covid cases will peak in January and we will see cases starting to decline in March,” he said.
Is the vaccine enough?
White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said that vaccine is not enough to eradicate the coronavirus.
“I think the opposite. … I really do” Dr. Fauci said. “The cavalry is coming but don’t put your weapons down, you better keep fighting because they are not here yet. Help is on the way, but it isn’t here yet.”
“So to me, that is more of an incentive of, ‘Please don’t give up. Don’t despair, the end is in sight,’ as opposed to: ‘Hey, we are good to go, don’t worry about anything.’ We are not good to go. We have got to continue to double down on public health measures,” he added.
