Lack of social distancing could lead to 35 times more coronavirus cases, according to new research published in the journal Health Affairs.
Findings suggested that social distancing measures can slow the daily growth of new COVID-19 cases by as much as 9 percent.
Researchers examined confirmed cases in the United States between March 1 and April 27. They discovered a slower growth rate when social distancing policy was in effect.
For social distancing measures that lasted 16 to 20 days, the rate of COVID-19 cases dropped by 9.1 percent.
Meanwhile, lack of social distancing policies could bring 35 times more cases.
The policies in the study refer to bans on big public events, shelter-in-place orders, and the closure of gyms, restaurants, bars, and other businesses.
The researchers from the University of Kentucky, the University of Louisville and Georgia State University said that by April 7, 95 percent of the US had implemented social distancing measures. Most states have started reopening businesses, with plans varying widely from state to state.
US reopening
In the last week of April, President Donald Trump tried to convince governors to “seriously consider” reopening schools in US. This is part of his effort to restart the economy.
The White House released guidelines on reopening called “Opening Up America Again.” It details conditions necessary for areas of the country to allow employees to resume work. However, the decision to lift measures lies on state governors.
“We must have a working economy. And we want to get it back. Very, very quickly. And that’s what’s going to happen,” Trump said during a White House press briefing after introducing the 18-page plan.
However, based on latest coronavirus models, reopening states in US could lead to deadlier situations. Contact reduction would determine the death toll, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
State-level forecasts vary widely, reflecting differences in early epidemic phases, timing of interventions, and model-specific assumptions,” the CDC says.
Models that take into account strong contact reduction show that new deaths will still happen. But it will “slow substantially over the next four weeks,” the CDC said.
“Conversely, models that do not incorporate as strong contact reductions … suggest that total deaths may continue to rise quickly.”
Trump did not mince his words when he said that the country should reopen already even if it leads to more deaths and sickness from the coronavirus outbreak.
“Will some people be affected? Yes. Will some people be affected badly? Yes,” Trump said. “But we have to get our country open and we have to get it open soon.”
He urged Americans to view themselves as “warriors” when they leave their homes.
“There’ll be more death,” he said. “The virus will pass, with or without a vaccine. And I think we’re doing very well on the vaccines but, with or without a vaccine, it’s going to pass, and we’re going to be back to normal.”
“But it’s been a rough process. There is no question about it,” Trump said. “I think our economy is going to be raging” in 2021.
