The new coronavirus spread seen in different states is not yet the second wave, according to scientists and infectious disease specialists.
A second wave of the coronavirus would need to retreat and reappear, or a new variant would have to take place, said Ian Lipkin, a professor of epidemiology and director of the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University. “The recent increase in cases does not reflect either," he added.
According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus outbreak has hit more than two million Americans and led to at least 113,820 deaths since the first positive coronavirus case less than five months ago.
New cases are dropping in once hot spots such as New York state. However, cases are increases in places like Florida, Texas, and Arizona. The US is still reporting around 20,000 new Covid-19 cases a day.
States like New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts have witnessed “clear first-wave outbreaks,” said Nicholas Reich, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
“However, many states have had more of a first-wave plateau, without a clear decline for many weeks.”
Arizona recorded 1,412 new cases on Thursday, making the state’s total 31,264. The number of cases rose by around 300% since May 1 and have doubled since Memorial Day.
Meanwhile, Texas had three-straight days of record-breaking coronavirus hospitalizations in the state. There has been a 32% increase in coronavirus hospitalizations in the state since the Memorial Day holiday, based on the state data.
Moreover, former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb said that states like Arizona and Texas “never really got rid of the first wave."
“They weren’t really that hard hit relative to other states during February [and] March. They had some infection, they had persistent infection. Now we are starting to see it go up as they reopen," he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box."
Following CDC guidelines
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield expressed his concern about Americans not regarding the agency’s rules as states gradually reopen after closing businesses and limiting public movements as part of social distancing measures. These measures were imposed to curb the spread of the virus.
“We will continue to message as well as we can,” said Redfield, who’s on the White House coronavirus task force. “We’re going to encourage people that have the ability to require to wear masks when they are in their environment to continue to do that.”
Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health, explained there is no way that only one event led to the spread.
“Transmissions occur, probably extra ones on a holiday like Memorial Day, which lead to cases and hospitalizations,” he said.
“All the activities we engage in affect that and thus affect whether say a particular transmission (John infected Sally) on Memorial Day or at a protest or wherever leads to Sally not infecting anyone else," he added.
Lipkin furthered, “high-density gatherings on any basis increase the risk of virus transmission.”
Coronavirus vaccine
He and other epidemiologists mentioned that the US and other countries will examine cases until there is an effective drug or a coronavirus vaccine.
The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that there are at least 136 Covid-19 vaccines under development as of June 9. At least 10 of those are conducting clinical trials.
“Until we have a vaccine to prevent infection or drugs that can safely and efficiently mitigate disease it is critical that we protect ourselves and our communities through physical distancing and the use of masks,” he said.
