Coronavirus deaths in the US are predicted to go beyond 200,000 by October, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
A coronavirus model once mentioned by the US government now predicts over 200,000 Americans could die by October 1. The prediction comes as new cases surge in different parts of the country while states are gradually reopening. The new prediction shows an increase of 30,000 deaths since last week’s projection.
Based on IHME's latest model, coronavirus deaths in the US could go from 171,000 to 270,000, with an estimate of 201,129. The number of daily deaths may soar again in September after arriving at a plateau in June.
The institute also predicts that the number of hospital beds and ventilators that will be needed in September will increase.
According to the data from Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus outbreak infected more than 2.13 million and led to 116,963 deaths.
“We’re now able to look ahead and see where states need to begin planning for a second wave of Covid-19,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray on Thursday.
“We hope to see our model proven wrong by the swift actions governments and individuals take to reduce transmission," he added.
Higher mobility
IHME predicts sees higher mobility in at least 20 states by October, which leads to more risks of transmission and scattered resurgence of the virus.
As states in the US reopen under their guidelines and loosen social distancing measures, they are starting to witness increases in new cases and hospitalizations.
“If the U.S. is unable to check the growth in September, we could be facing worsening trends in October, November, and the following months if the pandemic, as we expect, follows pneumonia seasonality,” Murray said.
There were reported increases in Florida, Arizona, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Texas after reaching all-time highs last week.
The number of coronavirus patients in hospitals in Texas recorded a new high Wednesday. This increased approximately by 11% in a single day.
The Texas Department of State Health Services reported that there are 2,793 Covid-19 patients in hospitals. The state’s coronavirus hospitalizations increased by more than 84% since Memorial Day.
The Department of Health Services in Arizona also reported 1,827 new cases Wednesday. The state’s total infections are now at 40,924. New coronavirus cases continued to surge since late May, and hospital capacity started to shrink.
According to the health agency, Arizona was at 85% capacity for inpatient beds and 83% capacity for intensive-care beds on Wednesday.
Positive tests
While testing has soared over the past few weeks, the proportion of positive tests has also blew up.
“It’s not a question of whether we should have reopened when we did or not. It’s how we did in terms of the behavior of individuals,” Dr. Farshad Marvasti, University of Arizona College of Medicine director of public health and prevention, told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” last week.
“Most folks have been out and about in closed spaces, including nightclubs, bars, malls, restaurants, without any mask-wearing, and I think that’s a big contributor to what’s going on.”
