Study: One in five people may develop a severe case of Covid-19

One in five people around the world may develop a severe case of Covid-19, according to a study published in the Lancet medical journal on Monday.

When the coronavirus cases started to emerge, health authorities worldwide agreed that people with chronic illnesses are at high risk when it comes to developing serious or fatal coronavirus symptoms.

An international team of scientists from the US, UK, and China assessed the number of people worldwide who had pre-existing health conditions that manifested high risk of being severely impacted by the virus.

Findings showed that 1.7 billion people around the world or 22% of the global population are at “increased risk” of showing severe signs if they contracted the coronavirus.

According to the paper, individuals at increased risk refer to those with at least one chronic health condition linked to greater vulnerability to the virus. Diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease are among the underlying conditions relevant to Covid-19.

The data is based on the guidelines from the World Health Organization and public health authorities in the US and UK.

“About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe Covid-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age,” the report’s authors said.

Based on the results, the proportion of people at increased risk around the world increased to 73% among those over the age of 70, and dropped to 4% among people younger than 20.

Breakdown per continent

Japan, Puerto Rico, and other countries with a higher proportion of older people, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with prevalence of diabetes, such as Fiji and Mauritius, had the most patients considered to be at increased risk.

Meanwhile, in North America, 104 million people, or 28% of the population, or across all age groups showed at least one condition that makes them at high risk of developing severe Covid-19 if they got the virus.

Thirty one per cent of Europe's population are at an increased risk of severe Covid-19. Europe remained the most at-risk region, although the authors disclosed that many European countries are home to older populations.

Africa’s population showed the lowest proportion of people at increased risk, with just 16% of Africans seen to have one or more underlying health condition that make them vulnerable to severe case of Covid-19.

High-risk

Scientists also noted that 349 million people worldwide or 4% of the global population were at “high risk” of having severe Covid-19 if they caught the virus. People who belonged to the high risk category were those who would need to be admitted to the hospital if they became infected with the virus.

Results of the study showed that among over-70s, 20% of the global population was identified as high risk. Moreover, men were twice as likely as women to be classified as high risk, with 6% of the male population identified as such, compared to 3% of women.

Globally, it was estimated that just 2% of people over the age of 70 had no underlying health conditions, while 42% of people between the ages of 15 and 49 were in the same category.