More than 137,000 may die in the US by August due to coronavirus, according to a model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
The US coronavirus death toll forecast rose as governors across the country continue easing social distancing to reopen their economies.
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IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said that increasing movements in communities led to the rise of the projection. He stressed that the easing of statewide measures took effect in places with an upward trend in movement already. According to IHME's news release, the team used anonymous cell phone data to monitor the movement.
"Unless and until we see accelerated testing, contact tracing, isolating people who test positive, and widespread use of masks in public, there is a significant likelihood of new infections," Murray said in the release.
States started reopening their economies in late April. Governors in South Carolina and Georgia reportedly implemented some of the most aggressive plans.
States outlined phased reopenings despite not meeting certain guidelines set by the federal government. These states claimed they followed the data and the advice of medical experts. However, other public health authorities warned about effects of easing measures too early.
Reactions to easing measures
Meanwhile, the public appears torn. Nearly two-thirds of Americans are worried about their state opening prematurely, according to a Pew Research Center poll. However, protests took place in the past weeks, calling for their return to work.
An expert told CNN that the effect of the reopening will be visible at least two to three weeks before states may start witnessing increased infections.
Data from Johns Hopkins University reported over 1,329,700 cases of coronavirus infections and 79,528 deaths.
Reopening businesses
Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics warned about the impact of reopening businesses too early on the economy.
“If we get a second wave, it will be a depression,” Zandi told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “We may not shut down again, but certainly it will scare people and spook people and weigh on the economy.”
Zandi, the firm’s chief economist, defined a depression as 12 months or more of double digit unemployment.
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“The market is casting a pretty high probability of a V-shaped shaped recovery,” said Zandi. “The horizon may be a little short term: Next month, the month after, the month after that.”
He believes that economic recovery is possible if there is solid progress on a vaccine. A delay or failure to develop a vaccine within the next year or so would also lead to a 1930s-type downturn, according to Zandi.
US reopening plan
President Donald Trump once said that US reopening should already start even if it leads to more deaths and sickness from the coronavirus outbreak.
Trump said he is gearing up for the “phase two” of the US response to the coronavirus. A part of this next move is to break up the White House task force of public health experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx.
