Will India become the next epicenter of coronavirus?

India
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The world must not allow India to become the next epicenter of coronavirus, according to the World Bank’s country director for India, Junaid Ahmad.

“Governments around the world (are) having to slow down the economy to give a chance for the health sector to recuperate,” Ahmad told CNBC’s “Street Signs” before the extension of lockdown in India.

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“I think that’s a very big difference in the way governments have been intervening," he added.

India Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the extension of the 21-day nationwide lockdown across the country on Tuesday. This was the same day lockdown measures were supposed to be lifted.

With this, several commercial and private establishments that do not provide essential services will remain closed until May 3. Some areas could be allowed to partially operate after April 20, but with caveats.

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As a result of the slowdown, Modi pointed out that governments, particularly India, have implemented steps to protect vulnerable members of society and sectors in their countries through fiscal and monetary programs.
The world is “bracing for probably the worst recession since the post-war era,” Ahmad said.

The fear of India being the epicenter of coronavirus is rooted in the increase of cases despite efforts from the government to keep people inside their homes since late March.

Based on the health ministry’s website, data revealed 11,439 confirmed cases of infection as of April 15, 8 AM local time.

There were 1,305 patients who have been discharged, and 377 people have died.

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Ahmad said that the topdown approach of India when it comes to imposing the initial countrywide lockdown was “critical” in curbing the swift spread of the coronavirus.

“Under no circumstances can the world, the region, or India, allow an epicenter to emerge in India. I think that the whole approach of a lockdown nationally and to really push on the health side has been very important,” he said.

Meanwhile, some critics said that the capacity of the country’s healthcare infrastructure is not enough to manage the kind of outbreak being experienced in the United States or in several Western European countries like Spain and Italy.

This is because of the fact that India spends comparatively less on public health than other countries such as the US. In addition, there are fewer per capita hospital beds and doctors that can respond to its 1.3 billion population.

Government initiatives

To address the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on low-income households and daily wage earners, India will release a fiscal package worth $22.5 billion.

Meanwhile, the World Bank approved a $1 billion program to assist India in preventing, identifying, and responding to the COVID-19 pandemic cases. Measures that can tame local transmission and empower the country’s public health preparedness will also be implemented.

“The World Bank has invested a billion dollars in partnership with Government of India on the health side, to look at community surveillance, to ensure testing, to ensure isolation, to ensure that medicine is available – if needed, importing of ventilators, purchase of ventilators,” Ahmad said.

“The whole nine yards in, if you will, the health expenditure and health intervention," he added.