Coronavirus lockdowns must not be completely lifted worldwide until a vaccine for the disease has been developed, according to a study published in medical journal The Lancet.
Premature lifting of coronavirus lockdowns could impact on some areas harder than others. The study, based on the outbreak that took place in China, revealed that the risk of death for those who infected with COVID-19 varied in different parts of China, according to economic development and accessibility of health care resources.
Findings showed that the death rate in Hubei was 5.91%, almost six times higher than outside the province, where it used to be 0.98%.
"Even in the most prosperous and well-resourced megacities like Beijing and Shanghai, health care resources are finite, and services will struggle with a sudden increase in demand," said senior author Professor Gabriel M Leung from the University of Hong Kong.
"Our findings highlight the importance of ensuring that local health-care systems have adequate staffing and resources to minimize Covid-related deaths."
Four cities and 10 provinces outside Hubei have been studied, and observations show that measures must be lifted gradually or the number of cases will increasingly rise over the relaxation period.
Researchers also disclosed that once the weight of rising cases is lifted, simply implementing interventions again would not diminish the burden back to its original level. This would need more effort, likely leading to bigger health and economic troubles.
"We are acutely aware that as economic activity increases across China in the coming weeks, local or imported infection could lead to a resurgence of transmission," co-lead author Dr. Kathy Leung from the University of Hong Kong, added in the release.
"Real-time monitoring of the effect of increased mobility and social mixing on COVID-19 transmissibility could allow policymakers to fine tune control measures to interrupt transmission and minimize the impact of a possible second wave of infections."
China's restrictions on public life may have tamed the first wave of COVID-19 across much of the country, but the researchers' mathematical modeling reveals that premature lifting of measures could result in a sweeping second wave of infection.
"While these control measures appear to have reduced the number of infections to very low levels, without herd immunity against Covid-19, cases could easily resurge as businesses, factory operations, and schools gradually resume and increase social mixing, particularly given the increasing risk of imported cases from overseas as Covid-19 continues to spread globally," Professor Joseph T Wu from the University of Hong Kong, who co-led the study, stated in a Wednesday news release.
"Although control policies such as physical distancing and behavioral change are likely to be maintained for some time, proactively striking a balance between resuming economic activities and keeping the reproductive number below one is likely to be the best strategy until effective vaccines become widely available," he added.
Easing quarantine measures without careful considerations could lead to further outbreaks and new restrictions, according to the study.
Austria announced it would gradually reopen shops after Easter, while in Germany, economists, lawyers and medical experts recommend a gradual recovery of Europe's biggest economy.
"Unless a vaccine is discovered quickly, it is unlikely that there will be any riskless or painless course of action," the paper states.
"Epidemiological and economic trade-offs will instead have to be faced. The choices at that juncture are likely to be difficult ones for politicians and citizens.
They said the idea "would help to restart prosperity before an extraordinary recession takes hold; it would lead to other societal benefits; it would also create a reasonably small, but unfortunately not negligible, extra risk to health in the country."
