The pork crisis in China due to the African swine fever (ASF) has started to ease but analysts expect price increases to remain a possibility.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of breeding pigs in China slightly increased in October compared to the month prior, causing the pork crisis to ease but analysts still expect price increases.
This was the first increase in breeding pigs since April 2018, a few months before ASF started affecting pig farms in the country. The impact of the illness not only resulted to the death of the animals but also caused reluctance among farmers in restocking after their pigs were slaughtered out of fear they would catch the disease.
This has resulted in a decline in China's total pig population by about 130 million or over 40% as of September. The agricultural ministry said that the uptick in breeding pigs demonstrate that the problem has "basically reached a bottom," showing that farmers are now more willing to raise pigs.
Yang Zhenhai, the ministry's director for livestock and veterinarians, said the total pig population could stop falling by the end of this year and that the ministry expects it to recover to 80% of pre-crisis levels by the end of 2020.
The Ministry of Commerce reported that while pork prices are still high, it is now starting to fall, showing an almost 9% decline last week. However, analysts warn that the crisis may not have bottomed out yet.
Xie Zhiyou, an agricultural industry analyst for China Galaxy Securities, said: "A peak season for pork consumption is coming." He is referring to the Chinese New Year, the country's most important holiday season. He expects prices to continue surging until at least the middle of 2020.
Xie also pointed out that until a vaccine for ASF becomes available in the market, it is impossible to for China's pig population to recover significantly.
