Scientists say it may take years before physical classes resume without social distancing and free from the risk of new coronavirus outbreaks.
Experts suggest it is not yet completely safe for students, especially among grade-school children, to return to school. They recommend herd immunity, a coronavirus vaccine, and hygienic practices as strategies to bring the virus down to low enough levels that can allow classes to resume.
“You’re really going to need all three moving forward,” said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Offit, a member of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, explained that implementing physical distancing measures are not easy in some settings.
According to public health officials, herd immunity may not happen soon, pointing out that at least 60% to 80% of the population must develop antibodies to resist new infections, leaving not enough new hosts to inhabit.
Scientists predict that a safe and effective Covid-19 may be distributed by the end of the year or early 2021. However, medical experts reiterate that the vaccine will not be a “magical cure.” Health officials expect a vaccine with 75% efficacy, suggesting that some individuals remain at risk of contracting the virus.
Unchartered territory
“If you have a vaccine, you’re still going to have to wear a mask and still have to try to social distance,” Offit said, stressing that the coronavirus vaccine will likely be less effective than the measles vaccination, which has 93% effectiveness, according to the CDC.
Yanzhong Huang, director of the Center for Global Health Studies at Seton Hall University, agreed, thinks that the world is in an “uncharted territory.”
He said that resuming classes would be difficult “in the absence of protective measures like masks, social distancing and washing hands.”
“I don’t think the vaccine itself will be a magic bullet,” he added.
According to Daniel Salmon, director of the Institute for Vaccine Safety at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, even if the Covid-19 vaccine works better than expected, children may not be among to receive the vaccination first, still potentially suspending a return to physical classes for some.
He noted that the completion of the clinical trials required for the vaccination of children remains uncertain. Several drug manufacturers are working on a potential Covid-19 vaccine, but it is only tested in healthy adults. Meanwhile, pregnant women and children are often the last to undergo testing. AstraZeneca announced earlier this year it would conduct its coronavirus vaccine testing on children in a phase two trial.
Most vulnerable groups
Moreover, he said that the initial sets of the candidate vaccines will likely be given to the most vulnerable groups, such as the elderly or health-care workers. “I don’t see how we’re going to offer mass vaccinations for children” anytime soon.
Meanwhile, infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch said that he does not agree that it will take years for in-classes to resume, due to the millions in investments the US has made on Covid-19 vaccines. However, he stressed that in-person education may not return to normal until late into the first half of 2021 after vaccines are seen to be widely available.
“But then schools may want to see proof of vaccinations,” said Bogoch, a professor at the University of Toronto.
Dr. Harry Greenberg, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Stanford University School of Medicine, shared the same sentiment, saying if “we’re lucky” on vaccines, students could attend classes again without masks by the fall next year.
For now, the advice of health experts is officials must approach school reopening region-by-region based on the rate of coronavirus infections.
