A new coronavirus prediction says there will be over 410,000 total US deaths by January 1 as the country faces the fall and winter.
According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus pandemic has already killed 186,800 people in the US.
The model used by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington for the coronavirus prediction suggests that the death toll will more than double by the end of the year and may reach as high as 620,000 if states relax coronavirus restrictions and people do not observe public health guidance.
“The worst is yet to come. I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, told reporters on a conference call Friday.
IHME's forecast in June is 200,000 deaths in the US by October, which seems to be on track. However, some epidemiologists and mathematicians have slammed IHME for making forecasts too far into the future.
Compliance
Meanwhile, IHME previously predicted 317,697 deaths by December 1. The model now shows that the daily death toll could increase to nearly 3,000 per day in December, an increase from over 800 per day now, based on the Hopkins data.
Government rules and public compliance will contribute to how many people die of Covid-19 this fall and winter, Murray stressed.
“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” Murray said in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and lmits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”
Moreover, Murray said that widespread mask use is not enough to curb spread of the coronavirus in the fall and winter. He suggests focusing on the kind of social distancing restrictions that will be most effective, but there is not sufficient public data to determine it.
“People in the Northern Hemisphere must be especially vigilant as winter approaches, since the coronavirus, like pneumonia, will be more prevalent in cold climates,” Murray said.
"Irresponsible"
Meanwhile, Youyang Gu, a data scientist who manages a competing Covid-19 forecasting model called Covid-19 Projections, said he is skeptical of IHME’s coronavirus forecast because they are too far into the future.
According to CDC’s most recent forecast, “deaths may decrease nationally over the next four weeks, with 3,300 to 7,500 new deaths reported during the week ending September 26.” It does not reveal projections beyond that week.
IHME’s model forecasts further out than most of its peers used by the CDC, according to Gu. His own model shows that there will be 220,300 total deaths by Nov. 1. He does not have numbers beyond that because it would be “irresponsible."
“There’s just so much uncertainty... There are too many variables going on and no one really can know for sure what’s going to happen,” he said in a phone interview. “There is just really no data to work off of for a winter season.”
